Who shops at Best Buy anymore when there is Amazon Prime?

BBY – Best Buy Options Play

image of best buy logoBBY – Best Buy Co., Inc. operates as a retailer of technology products, services, and solutions in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company has Earnings on 5.25.2017. The company’s stock is currently trading around $50.61 in a 52 week range of $28.76-$52.67. The stock has been shown on fire over the past year with shares up 64.35% over the past 12 months.  I think that the upside is in and BBY will sell off on Earnings. To confirm this signal we will analyze the stocks historical movement record on earnings, the current expectations for movement being priced into the options market, the technical setup, and institutional order flow into the event.

First we will examine the stocks historical earnings performance record. We can see that over the past 8 quarters the stock has rallied 4 times on earnings day with an average move of 8.1%. This does not tell us that the stock is guaranteed to rally this quarter but it does show us that there is a slight neutral bias in the performance of BBY on earnings day. This means that as we work through the rest of our analysis will have a bullish bias.

With a sense of how the stock has moved on earnings day in the past we can calculate the expected movement for this quarter. To best isolate the expected movement in BBY we will use the shortest dated options that still contain the catalyst event. In this case we will use the May 26th weekly expiry. To measure the market makers expected move we will need to calculate the price of the at the money straddle. We looked at the BBY $50.50 strike straddle in the May 26th weekly expiry and it is implying a whopping $4.00 move.

BBY Straddle

The straddle is marking around $4.00. This implies an expected move of around $4.00. This implies a move of around 8.3% by Friday’s expiry. Since this is in line with the stocks historical movement record we know that there an opportunity to put on a good reward vs risk setup BBY

Upside target = $50.50 + $4.00= $54.50

Downside Target = $50.5 – $4.00 = $46.50

With these targets in mind we can look at the chart in BBY to see if trend agrees with the bullish bias, but I think the chart is top heavy in BBY price action

image of Best Buy BBY stocks chart

 

 

 

Here we can see that the stock is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud and is firmly in bullish territory, but with a HUGE rally in AMZN, that everything AMZN competes against will have spot Earnings.

I think that BBY will move lower on Earnings, but I want to make sure I am getting a favorable reward to risk setup.  I think the stock will move higher, but I am not sure how much

Potential trade: Buying 1 BBY May 26th 52-59 Put Spread for $1.50 dedit

Risk: $150 per 1 lot
Reward: $150 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $50.50

This kind of analysis can be used to find setups like this ahead of earnings and other catalyst events.

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