Oil Analysis | Week of January 23rd, 2017

Thank you for reading this week’s oil analysis

Before I get into the analysis, I wanted to take a moment to talk with you about something that I look for in my everyday trading…that something (in my opinion) is the key to long term day trading success.  In fact, until I figured out this “secret recipe” to success, I was not a consistently successful trader.

If you don’t believe that this “secret recipe” is the key, listen to Tony Robbins (world renowned motivational speaker) and his time spent with Paul Tudor Jones (legendary day trader).

Watch this short YouTube video (1:26) and see for yourself.

Ok, see what I mean…the real secret to long term day trading success is getting asymmetrical returns.  Not only do I write technical analysis here on this site, but I run a day trading chat room and educational service at www.OilTradingGroup.com

And this Wednesday, January 25th I will be part of a webinar event being hosted by the biggest prop firm in the business.  During this hour long presentation, I will be discussing asymmetrical returns and how to implement these strategies into your day trading!

Don’t worry its FREE to attend and there won’t be a HUGE sales pitch…just register, even if you can’t attend…you will receive the recording.

CLICK HERE to register for this FREE event and look for me Jason Love – Oil Trading Group.

Oil Analysis

Oil ended down slightly this week as the Baker-Hughes rig report showed a very bearish spike in the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil.  This comes at a time that there were positive signs that the output cut, agreed to by major producers was showing signs of tightening supply.  The fear is that the increasing output from the U.S. could hinder the efforts of the major producers to rebalance global oil supply.

Friday also saw the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. With his presidency comes the expectations that oil drilling restrictions would be eased which could contribute to higher domestic production; putting further pressure on prices.

Meanwhile, major world producers have been cutting output as part of their agreement, which began January 1st.

Phil Flynn, analyst with with Phil Flynn price group noted in his daily newsletter;

Despite evidence from the International Energy Agency and private oil production watchers, OPEC is complying with cuts yet there is a sense from oil producers that the market is not acting like it should. Comments made by Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih, the de facto leader of the OPEC, touted the compliance cuts and reversed course and said that further cuts might be considered. So to get the market’s attention, they may say or do something this weekend. This the first non-OPEC-OPEC meeting with Russia in attendance to try to shock the market out its doubtful complacency.

With the information that production cuts (by major producers) is reducing global supply and the idea that U.S. producers will re-enter the market on an easing of restrictions by President Trump, it is no wonder that we continue to trade in a narrowing price range.

oil Analysis

Crude Oil Analysis – The Charts

Crude-oil continues the consolidation pattern that has been developing over the last several months.  The symmetrical triangle continues to narrow as we completed a retracement to the 78.6% fib level on January 3rd.

oil analysis

Last week we discussed the 4-hour chart “rising wedge” formation that developed.   The rising wedge is a “bearish” formation and once broken, provides an end the the near term bullish price action.  This week we added a triple top formation inside the bearish wedge.  That is more bearish confirmation…

oil analysis

Summary – Oil Analysis

Crude definitely feels as though it is “coiling” up for a breakout.  The charts are definitely showing the possibility for a bearish move, particularly if the supply concerns andU.S. producers come on-line in great numbers, persists.

Next week will see a surge of executive orders surrounding a number of issues affecting the economy and the USD.

This could provide some additional direction…until then…”chop-chop”

Above the Market

54.40 – 54.85

55.60 – 56.00

57.40 – 57.90

Below the Market

52.20 – 51.70

51.00 – 50.50

49.50 – 49.00

To receive a full oil trading plan every day for CL (Light Sweet Crude), where we will apply our trades based upon the OTG CL technical outlook, please Click-Here and sign up for a Free Trial with The Oil trading Group. You will also be able to join us in our live trading room during this free trial to experience how we put these trade plans into practice in the markets. Have a great trading day, from the Oil trading group. We hope you find our Weekly Oil Technical Analysis helpful.

Disclaimer:

The Oil Trading Group. (“OTG”) does not hold itself out as a Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”).Given this representation all information and material provided by OTG is for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice.

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.  (Go to www.OilTradingGroup.com for the full disclaimer).

Jason on FacebookJason on TwitterJason on Youtube
Our lead trader Jason Love has been an active day trader for the past 10 years. The Oil Trading Group was founded over 5 years ago to address the glaring need for quality day trading education. Prior to becoming a day trader, Jason ran a 300 seat call center, as the Vice President of Operations. As a veteran of the United States Navy, who served during Operation Desert Storm, Jason understands the value that structure and discipline have in day trading the volatile financial markets. In addition to providing day trading education to customers, he is also providing education services to a large futures trading firm, based in Chicago. When Jason is not trading, he is coaching his son’s Travel Select Youth baseball team and spending quality time with his family.

Jason

Our lead trader Jason Love has been an active day trader for the past 10 years. The Oil Trading Group was founded over 5 years ago to address the glaring need for quality day trading education. Prior to becoming a day trader, Jason ran a 300 seat call center, as the Vice President of Operations. As a veteran of the United States Navy, who served during Operation Desert Storm, Jason understands the value that structure and discipline have in day trading the volatile financial markets. In addition to providing day trading education to customers, he is also providing education services to a large futures trading firm, based in Chicago. When Jason is not trading, he is coaching his son’s Travel Select Youth baseball team and spending quality time with his family.

One thought on “Oil Analysis | Week of January 23rd, 2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Translate »