Daily Emini Futures (ES_F) Pre-Market Prep

S&P Emini Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep and Trading Levels

Every trader has their own idea of how to trade the S&P Emini Futures. Put simply if you fail to plan your trade in your chosen market then you plan to fail! Every day Jigsaw will provide a Pre-Market Analysis, which is based on Market and Volume Profile whilst addressing important levels of support and resistance. I will show you areas of interest and areas where I will be looking to participate in a potential trade. It’s important to understand that just because a price level appears on our radar that we don’t blindly enter a trade. To enter a trade I will look for confirmation using the Jigsaw Tools and this is a tool I use religiously for entering and exiting the market based on price action. Click on chart image to enlarge, then back space on the browser to return to post…..

Emini S&P Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep & Trading Plans – 2018



Sill not moving anywhere. Volume is decent. News risk is still high.



Eyes on 2705 & 2732 - that's where we traded most last week.



A big push down overnight - be wary of any push up off the open as it may just be rebalancing. Overall market is directionless - we seem to have settled back into the old range.

Plan
- opening trade on today
- looking for a move away from a level - but with no bias at all
- will try to scale in as we do still have a healthy range and that also plays into the overall directionlesness....(If that's even a word!)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2716.75 / 2720.25-> 2745.50
Value - 2733.75-> 2742.25
Globex - 2716.75 -> 2737.25
Settlement – 2721.50
Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

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I think the comment "blips from the news" from yesterdays prep is a good candidate for understatement of the week....



We reached the low of the old range - 2698.25 before bouncing back up. Interesting but doesn't help us much today.



Profile doesn't usually help with an elongated move. So lets come back to this later in the week.



As we go into today, we have to consider what's been happening after these "trade war" price moves. The last one we had was a big move down but the next day - totally sideways, low volume and not much opportunity.

News risk still there, obviously...

Plan
- Observe, observe, observer - try to figure out the volatility profile of the day first and foremost
- Scale in if it looks like the market is running again - I do prefer upside but I'm going in with no bias
- If there is no interest - look to scalp NQ ranges

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2735.75-> 2786.75
Value - 2756.25 -> 2776.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2700.50 / 2746.50 -> 2758
Value - n/a today - yesterday too elongated for this to be meaningful Globex - 2716.75 -> 2728.40
Settlement – 2722.25
Today only - 2745,2698.75
Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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Back to the old range high - so once again - looking to see if buyers jump in at these levels. Volume is still quite low, not much interest in the markets right now. Just the blips on the news.



Very even distribution last week - so eyes on the value area and expect chop once we get into it.



We can see not much action on Friday and overnight we've moved down then moved sideways 42-50.

Plan
- Early trade on as it might be a narrow day
- Look for a lift off the open as we have pushed down overnight
- Will play breaks in either direction if we see a move from a developing level
- If it chops - revert to short term NQ bounce trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2735.75-> 2786.75
Value - 2756.25 -> 2776.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2749.25 / 2756.25 -> 2768.50
Value - 2761 -> 2766.50
Globex - 2741.25 -> 2758
Settlement – 2759.50
Today only - 2745
Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

So - with 45 being the high of the old range, we are looking for moves up but with eyes

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More sideways action - hard to say if we are going to extend the range we just broke out of - if we can push down to the top of that range - around 2745, we should have a better idea of what's going on by how it reacts there.



A push down overnight but within last weeks range, so not really significant. Expecting chop to the upside if we don't test 2745 first.



Overnight we've traversed Fridays range, so watching the extremes as we open.

Plan
- Early trade on as we may chop later on
- Looking for a test of 2745 long term.
- watching day trader levels and will expect a little acceleration on a break down
- expecting moves up to be choppy as it's back into last weeks range, will focus on NQ if we move up.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2765.50 -> 2796
Value - 2780.50 -> 2794

Daily Numbers
Range - 2765.50 -> 2787.50 / 2789.25
Value - 2770.50 -> 2781
Globex - 2768 -> 2786.75
Settlement – 2784.50
Today only - 2745
Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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A bit of a move down off the FOMC, volume normal. Not sure we should read too much into this - still expecting a test of 2810, but this could be the top.



Profile is indicating a range , so looking for longs pretty much from where we are now.



The usual wild swings off FOMC.

So plan for today is to see if we get any volatility now FOMC is out of the way and if the market can carry on up to the top of the range.

Plan
- Early trade is on as it might be dull later on
- Eyes on the day trader levels (below) and 2810
- A day for letting the developing action dictate more than the current prices

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2772.25 -> 2796
Value - 2782.75 -> 2794.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2778.75 -> 2796
Value - 2786.50 -> 2795.50
Globex - 2772.25 -> 2783.50
Settlement – 2779
Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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A pretty lackluster day yesterday and FOMC today - I still have an eye on the 2810 area but basically not expecting much from the morning session.



Not much to see here - typical rangebound profile so far.



Nothing new overnight - a small push through the highs - again - probably just pre FOMC slowdown, so we have to re-assess tomorrow.

Plan - Look for open trade as it might be all that's on for the ES
- Trade swings on the NQ if the ES is slow
- Re-assess after FOMC

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2774.25 -> 2796
Value - 2783.50 -> 2793

Daily Numbers
Range - 2782.75 -> 2794
Value - 2786.75 -> 2791.75
Globex - 2788 -> 2796
Settlement – 2788.25
Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2810, 2887

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A rather disappointing day yesterday, we tested the top of the range overnight and then just probed through again. So it looks like either the range isn't broker OR there's so few positions still open within the range that there's no stops to cause a reaction.

Less than 900k contracts traded. Bottom line is there's just not a lot going on technically Or in the news. Or rather, news doesn't seem to be bugging people out at the moment.

Rollover is later this week and the volume isn't in September either.



Still not much to see here.



As you can see - very narrow yesterday. For today, a change of plan. We may be heading into the summer time chop, so here's my suggestion for index traders that want to stick with it

Plan
- If we return to regular volatility, then flip back to regular ES trading
- If not - look to trade within the range on NQ, YM, RTY Futures

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2737
Value - 2700.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2729 / 2739.25 -> 2749.25
Value - 2742.75 -> 2747.25
Globex - 2742 -> 2749
Settlement – 2745.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Still in the range and volume is down. We are at the top of the range but we've hit the top quite a few times. I'm all for fading ranges but not after so many hits. So key here is to let it play out and then jump in BUT be aware of manipulation at the extremes. Be ready to bail if you take the fade but upside volume comes in.



Weekly range/profile/value don't add much. We know where the range is already!



Obviously we have to be on the lookout for the range breaking and wary of a headfake. Fridays value low held overnight - so watching the day trader levels for a hold and some upside.

Plan
- Look for a continuation of past 2 days behavior with a breakdown
- Be wary of heafakes on any move up
- Be wary of any fake reversal downside too

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2675 -> 2737
Value - 2700.75 -> 2731.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2705 / 2720.50 -> 2737
Value - 2727.50 -> 2735
Globex - 2729 -> 2743.50
Settlement – 2733.75
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698

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More of this unusual directionless, volatile market. We are still coiling into this range, so eyes on a break today and if we can really follow through when it does.



Yesterday was another good example of the intraday volatility at the moment. How we can have a choppy start, then break at any point. Yesterday was quite a late break, in fact it reminds me a bit of trading overnight. Looks good in retrospect but actually involves long periods sitting on your behind doing nothing.

No levels today again

Plan
- Look for an early trade as we may chop off the open
- Take any obvious range trades but not aggressively - good to be selective- T
ry to be alert when it breaks

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Range is narrowing. Really directionless. Action was pretty ugly yesterday and volume on the low side. Hopefully we'll get something more lively as there's no holiday today.

Obviously, this coiling up type of action will end up breaking at some point and the result is usually a decent move out of the range. So eyes out for that.



Profile is telling us that there's potential to range 2640 -> 2657 but common sense says we just see more volume in the middle, not because we spent time there but because the volatile days overlapped.

So to me, that invalidates the area.



As per yesterday, there's no direction and so I'd rather go into the day with no bias and no levels. The difference today is we will have more volume and so a chance that we break the range and see an extended move.

We don't want to bank on that though, so we'll be on the lookout to capitalize on fact the range is decent even within this directionless area.

Plan
- look for an early trade - avoid the chop
- join volatility moves, note - the market is busy at odd times at the moment 9:30-10:30 can be dull but then a break and excitement at 11
- watch for a break of the larger range (below 30, above 75)
Not going to do the levels today as I think they are less useful with this lack of direction.

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Still looks like a narrowing range to me but overall volatility is so high. I still have no bias at all here. Would be tempted to be long but nope. Going in neutral



Yesterday we were looking for longs above 53 and we came back over it a few times with all the chop we had after the first 30-4 minutes.



Not the best action yesterday - some grinding up action. Then a few hours sideways across a 10 point range, then a pop. Great if you'd been long early on. Decent for bites out of the swings but hard to stay with a trade IMO.

Overnight, fairly narrow again and heavy volume above from earlier in the week. 66-80 might be choppy because of this.

Plan
- No bias
- range potential 66-80, above 80 I'd be happier to be long that 66-80.
- Will try to get an early trade
- Obviously if we get a volatility break - which is possible any day, any time at the moment - will try to grab something from it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 26315.50 -> 2687.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2639.50 2645.50 -> 2675.50
Value - 2650.75 -> 2668.25
Globex - 2665.25-> 2677.50
Settlement – 2674.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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We broke out of that early range yesterday, which is good - so now what we want is to hit the low of the range.

That will give us some degree of predictability. Up from here really puts is in a narrowing range from a long term perspective which is an odd thing to say after such a big drop.

We did have some interesting financial news yesterday, apparently fewer people want to spend $1,000 on a telephone every 6 months. And steel price increases caused a warning from Caterpillar which is obviously a bit more of a macro event.

So the "trade war" thing is still in play and very much appearing to create market volatility
- so we are at high news risk again.



Profile shows us how fast the move down was. Very little traded between here and 2660.



We can see the run down was pretty much from the open and went on all day. As usual after these days, we go in without a bias but are very wary of a snap back OR A continuation down. In other words - if we see high participation in either direction we go with it as there's a good chance of follow through.

Obviously eyes on Dow and Nasdaq for confirmation of any momentum trade.

Plan
- Looking for a reaction to yesterdays move down - which ever way it goes
- Looking to scale into a trade
- play away from the range only if there's a high volume swing taking us out

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2616-> 2688.50
Value - 2651.50 -> 2688.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2616 -> 2683.75
Value - 2616.50 -> 2665
Globex - 2625.75 -> 2639.75
Settlement – 2635.25
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Volatile but no direction - so there's money on the table if you play it right. Our presumed range low is still holding but no signs of us



We are building up the distribution at the lows so look for fades at 2600 and 2630



That's an ugly profile. Almost symmetrical in how it extended through the low and up then the high early on.

Plan
- no bias
- looking to trade early on when it's cleaner than later on the offchance we go over the same area many times
- look to 2600 and 2630 as the extremes - be very wary of any trades in the middle
- so an early trade if there is one, then patience waiting to see how the range extremes do

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591-> 2679.75
Value - 2600.75 - 2634

Daily Numbers
Range - 2593 -> 2633.75
Value - 2605.75 -> 2621.50
Globex - 2601 -> 2616
Settlement – 2607.50
Today only 2600, 2630
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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We have a few options as to where the end of the range could now be. The move up off the top of the potential middle range is just overnight action - so it may be wiped out at the open.

Path of least resistance is down, so for longs we really need to see volume on our side.



The lower distribution from last week bottoms out around 2626 - but obviously needs to be given some breathing room. If we do see a push down from here, my presumption is that traders will pile on.



This doesn't add much - other than showing the relationship between the late break on Friday and the overnight action

Plan
- bias down, so need strong signals to play longs
- with that in mind we have just hit a potential range low
- play breaks of Fridays low short
- look for strong order flow/volume to play any long moves - err on the side of caution

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2586 -> 2756.50
Value - 2652.75 - 2756.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2586 -> 2658.75
Value - 2627 -> 2654.50
Globex - 2591 -> 2629.75
Settlement – 2597.75
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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We got to the 2650 level and beyond.We may be looking to test 2530 below, so eyes on a breakdown but also eyes our on a move back up to 2800 from here.



Not much from the weekly profile - as it's so elongated, value area no longer relevant.



Eyes on 2663 into the open. We had a big push down overnight but it's recovering.

Plan
- As per yesterday - any rebalance up off the open will be taken with a grain of salt
- Longs above 2650 - looking at that as a sign we are done to the downside
- shorts below yesterdays low - looking at that as a sign we are going to test the recent lows

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2617 -> 2756.50
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2642 -> 2698 / 2726.25
Value - 2668.50 -> 2690
Globex - 2617 -> 2648.25
Settlement – 2532.50
Today only 2650
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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As you can see - not much happened yesterday - so we are in the same place as we were in yesterdays prep - just with lower expectations.

FOMC today, so expecting a slow start.



Not much to see here, market in a range.



Obviously, we'll be watching this range today 2712.75->2729. There's a good chance we'll hold till FOMC and after that there's the potential of a break up to 2750 or down to 2650

Plan
- Low expectation in the morning
- Look aggresively for an early trade as it may be all we have
- Then play 2712-2729 range
- Revise opinion after FOMC moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2697.25-> 2756.50
Value - 2703.50 -> 2728.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2712.75 -> 2727.75 / 2729
Value - 2717.25 -> 2724.75
Globex - 2717.25 -> 2727.75
Settlement –2723.50
Today only 2745-2750, 2650
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Yesterday we were looking for a test of 45-50 area for a high participation move down.

"Based on the weekly profiles. I'd be looking for 2750 to hold from below for a continuation down. If we can test 50's, I think more people will jump on board and we'll have a cleaner move down.

You can see that to the left, we pushed through 50 a few times last week, so I'm going to put that "test area" from 50 to a range 45-50 - it's a bit wide but that's what it's showing us."

We hit 45.25 before taking a dive and we did indeed see decent participation. Volume was above 2 million for the day.

If the range in the box above is in play, we are looking at a target of 2650 before turning back up.



Not much to see here - just a long move down on the first day of the week. Still have eyes on 45-50.



As usual after a big down day we look out for high participation - which could be a snap back up or continuation.

We've continued the bounce upside overnight, so into the open we just look to see how that plays out when the 'real' volume comes in.

Plan
- High expectation day
- Not really looking at levels (except 2650 and 2745) - mostly looking for a large momentum move
- More than happy to be long or short

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2697.25 -> 2745.25
Value - 2699 -> 2723.50
Globex - 2716.25 -> 2728.50
Settlement –2722.75
Today only 2745-2750, 2650
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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We had a very narrow day on Friday, we were looking for 50 to break decisively to see some follow through. It didn't happen on Friday but it has happened overnight.

We can see the potential range in the yellow box. So downside target is 2650 (not in 1 day though)

As usual with big overnight moves - we want to see if the day session accepts it or rejects it...



Based on the weekly profiles. I'd be looking for 2750 to hold from below for a continuation down. If we can test 50's, I think more people will jump on board and we'll have a cleaner move down.

Other than that, I don't see much use for the weekly profile.



you can see that to the left, we pushed through 50 a few times last week, so I'm going to put that "test area" from 50 to a range 45-50 - it's a bit wide but that's what it's showing us.

Note also that Fridays value low held, so the daily values may be in play today.

Plan
- Look for an opening trade
- If market stays down into the open - look out for an initial 'rebalance' up and don't put too much faith in that initial move
- Ideal trade would be a move back up to 45-50 and then a push down with participation
- Other than that - long above 50 and short below it
- eyes on Fridays levels too (as Fridays value held)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2750.25 / 2753.50 -> 2766.25
Value - 2756.50-> 2764
Globex - 2733 -> 2756.50
Settlement –2756
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Still hovering around that inflection point at 50 - market looks undecided so far. We've had a probe down but just 4 points. yesterday was really a switch in pace, with slow range-bound mechanics in play. Obviously the longer we stay in this area, the sloppier the action will be.



The profile is really not showing us much that we didn't know yesterday
- we are just building volume at the bottom of the weeks range.



Yesterday you can see we opened in a range and then extended it pretty much the same amount each side.

Plan
- Looking to play the range
- eyes on breaks outside of yesterdays range to jump on momentum moves but lower expectation
- eyes also on yesterdays range/value range for fades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2745 / 2745.75 -> 2767.25
Value - 2750.50 -> 2761
Globex - 2750.25 -> 2759.50
Settlement –2755.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Yesterday we were looking for a downside move to hit the 2750 area, that's done now. We are back to the middle of the larger range which is 2650-2800. We've hit the low once and the top twice.

So after this reaction at 2750, we need to see if we'll continue up or complete that larger range to the downside.



This weeks profile is interesting - and looks more the way a trend week would look. You can see how the top of last weeks upper distribution came into play yesterday. Doesn't mean it'll hold but does mean it's significant.



The market is certainly taking pause here. You can see we've probed through 2750 overnight, so.....

Plan
- looking to see if overall range is in progress or smaller one.
- 2750 is the inflection point so longs above & shorts below. Long term short target 2650. Longs target 2800

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2748 -> 2782.50 / 2783.50
Value - 2750 -> 2767
Globex - 2745-> 2762.25
Settlement –2754
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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We were looking at 2 things yesterday....
- potential 2785-2805 range
- drop to 2750 if the range breaks

We did hold the top of the range and couldn't hold the bottom for long and we saw a decent drop. Not as low as 2750 yet.



We can see here that very little trading last week between where we are to 2750 - so still an eye on that.



At the moment, we are rotating around yesterdays low. So the break of that low should give us a good run as traders get stopped out.

Plan
- Look out for an early trade.
- Join moves downside looking for 2750
- other than that, no real bias, expecting a return to volatility and looking to scale into moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2668.75-> 2792
Value - 2695.25 -> 2703

Daily Numbers
Range - 2762.50 -> 2807.25
Value - 2766.50 -> 2789
Globex - 2762.25 -> 2775
Settlement –2768.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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June is now leader in terms of volume but there's still a lot of volume in March. As of writing 83k in June and 74k in March. So there's still a lot of rolling by the look of it.

Volume was low according to the chart - but this is the continuous contract and so volume is split between contracts and this shows just one of them.

We are still playing the volatility game, although as June is now volume leader, it'll be interesting to see if the market is more liquid.

We have just pushed up past the 2790 level that held on the 27th & 28th Feb, so this is a decision point. If we start to move down again, we could see a nice sell of and I'll be looking to scale into that. On the other hand we are pretty close to the highs. It would 'feel' odd to have a run to the highs after the doom & gloom in the press over the past month - but I'm quite happy to jump on any up moves, I just feel a bit more nervous about it. Or rather, I think everyone will be nervous about a run to the highs, so I'll proceed with caution in that direction.

Plan
- looking for an early trade (especially given the slower starts and later moves we've been seeing)
- then simply looking to jump on developing momentum, scaling into a position

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This is interesting. Market is coiling into a relatively small range. We are also rolling over today.

From an order flow perspective the rollover is problematic. A lot of trades are executing that are non-directional - just closing out long term positions on one contract and opening them on another. So you might see a lot of selling at a price and the market moves up - you think "those sellers are stuck" - but they aren't - they are long in June!

Still - there can be directional, fairly easy to read days on the roll, so you have to just watch it.

The other issue with the roll - it tends to take longer nowadays, used to be that by Thursday afternoon all the volume would be in the new contract but it can take a few days for that to happen now. The roll date isn't a 'must do' date.

Then there's this range narrowing - with the volatility we've had of late, I'd say there's a good chance of a violent break from this decreasing range at some point.

So all in all, a market that may be a little harder to read today with a good chance of taking people out when this tightening range breaks.

Definitely a day to be careful or have the day off.

Plan
- Look for ranges to fade but hyper aware of any action that looks like a break
- If we do see a high volume one-way move, it's got a good chance of being extended, so ready to scale in

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image of emini s&p futures trading chart

A gap down today and into the rollover tomorrow. Range wasn't huge yesterday. There's a lot of chop to the left, so it's hard to judge direction.



Yesterday, we mentioned the ranges that have been forming. Even though we've had large overall daily , we've had a tendency to get stuck in smaller ranges close to the open and rotate around them for a while.

This screen shot is a good example of that. You can see the purple range (bulge) on the volume profile & above that, a smaller green. We opened up above, rotated a little then dropped down to 19.75. On the way up, from a chart perspective then 27.25 isn't that significant. From an intraday profile perspective it is.

So this bulge in the profile is an area we often rotate around. It's been doing it a lot in the past few days. As positions build there, that gives us the energy to generate the larger move later in the day when it breaks.

You don't want to be fading the extreme on the 7th hit in my opinion but early on it's a good spot and you find out you are right or wrong fairly early on.

Anyway - this seems to be in play right now (as mentioned in yesterdays prep), so keep your eyes out for it.

That's my plan for today. Then tomorrow the roll and a day off...

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image of S&P emini future daily trading chart 1st march

Another wild day. As per yesterday, we were looking for breaks of the overnight range. The break above didn't have much follow through. On the first push down to the overnight low, we got a healthy 20 point pop to the upside and on the next attempt, the market broke down and we had a fast run to the downside

image of emini futures volume profile

Not reading too much into this - we can see not much has tread between 22 and 38, so cautious (or optimistic) if 22 breaks to the upside.



You can see the nice run when the overnight low broke. Going into today - if you look at the first image above you can see that some people will be looking at this market as channeling up. So there's good reason to expect participation from speculators if that is confirmed or broken. Looking left it's chop, so we might be marking out a range overall.

Plan
- No clear direction or bias
- Good arguments for longs and shorts
- Will let the action develop and wait for some momentum to jump on
- We have been settling into early ranges and breaking out later in the day - so bear that in mind

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2703 -> 2789.74
Value - 2742 -> 2780.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2712.50 -> 2762
Value - 2740.50 -> 2761
Globex - 2703-> 2722.50
Settlement –2714.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Emini S&P Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep & Trading Plans – February 2018



Volume was higher yesterday and we had a 50 point range. I wasn't watching the market, so I can't say much about the sweeps - but I will be on the lookout today.



An elongated profile, which effectively tells us not much - or rather there's no areas this week that we've liked to trade around.



A big down day but really just retracing the Sunday/Monday move. So as usual after a big down day, be prepared for a snap back up. If we manage to push down again, I think we could get to 2680 very quickly.

Plan
- eyes on liquidity/volatility again
- looking for breaks of the overnight low, if so - looking to play a momentum move - potential to get to 2680.
- Upside, also looking to see what happens above the overnight high
- apart from that, I don't have any levels of interest - so a wait & see day.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2638.50 -> 2789.75
Value - 2753 -> 2785.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2743.50 -> 2789.75
Value - 2756 -> 2778.50
Globex - 2738.50 -> 2754.75
Settlement –2747.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Going on the presumption that markets are 'somewhat' back to normal (see here: https://www.jigsawtrading.com/2018/02/26/volatility-return-normal/

Overnight we've broken through the high of last week and held above it, so will be using that as a line in the sand today.



A very wide range last week, with the main distrubution topping out around 2734.2 (weekly VAL). Eyes on that if we move down.



Zooming in, we can see we tested last weeks close and stayed above it. No sign of weakness yet.

Plan
- look for an early trade - volume into the open
- after that, look for continuation up if we stay above Fridays high
- shorts below Fridays high with a target of 2736
- Easy does it though.... look for good prices and be wary of any major sweeps/volatility disappearing

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2682 -> 2847.75
Value - 2709.25 -> 2734.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2710 / 2712.75 -> 2747.50
Value - 2714.25 -> 2729.75
Globex - 2742.50 -> 2761.50
Settlement –2748.75
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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Market has much more depth 200-300 a level heading into the open. It was an FOMC day, so while we did see a 50 point range, it was mostly after the FOMC announcement and there wasn't significant volume on the day.

As of typing we are back to less than 100 at each level. So I'm back to waiting this AM to see if the depth comes back and if not, if we are clear of that wild sweeping behavior.

All things being well, if we have an orderly market, we'll be able to play some momentum moves

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 20 feb

Once again, the market appears to have settled down. But we are looking at a holiday day and an overnight session.

Range overnight at the time of writing is just 12.5 points and market depth is below 50 on the inner 3-4 levels and below 200 above that. So we look set for another volatile day. Eyes on the depth as we get towards 9am EST.

image of emini futures volume profile

We do potentially have a range there 2720-2750. For today - expectations are we still wont be honoring levels as the market will be illiquid and nervous. There's no news events today, so the best we can hope for is an injection of some much needed boredom, so that we can have a more stable market.

For now - if we get the volatility, will still be trying to take advantage of some momentum on one side and trying to time an entry off counter-move traders running out of steam.

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image of s&P emini futures trading chart 16 feb 2018

Still volatile - but with volume stabilizing at just below 2M.

This is still not the ES that really wants to respect levels. Still a market that is nervous.

So still playing short term bounces, with the short term direction. Confirmed with Nasdaq and Dow.

Sorry there's not much more to add - but I think levels are out the window while this market is so volatile.

We have seen more depth in the book - but we are still seeing sweeps 5-6 ticks at a time and very few prints as we move through prices. So careful out there!

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Interesting day yesterday - it was plodding along till the 8:30 announcements and then the market volatility spiked massively. The actual 9:30 open was calm in comparison. The numbers weren't terrible but this market is still very nervous.



The volatility increase put an end to the idea we were calming down. 60 points in the day session and almost 80 points range including overnight. Volume around 2 million though, so participation didn't go back to peak levels.



With the increase in volatility, it's back to just playing the volatility and not trying too hard guessing where traders might react. So right now - it's back to yesterdays "Plan A: look to play short term bounces with the short term trend".

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image of S&P emini futures daily tradding chart 14 feb

Market is calming down and volume was below 2 million yesterday. So let's be ready for another switch in momentum/liquidity.

image of volume profile for S&P emini futures post bearish correction

And we now seem to have a little structure coming back. We can see that yesterday, we pushed through the overnight low before an attempt at the prior days high. We traded back and forth at the top there from around 2559 to 2666. That area has held so far overnight.

So eyes on the market depth. It was mostly below 200 yesterday and inside levels below 100. So looking for us to get back to 3-400s

Plan - if the inside 3 levels are still below 100, look to play short term bounces with the short term trend
- if we get better liquidity, look for plays off the volume profile, looking for the sort of structure we'd normally see for short term trend continuation

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imag eof S&P emini futures daily trading chart bearish correction

The Market does appear to be calming down. Only 50 point range yesterday but liquidity still very low and we are still seeing the market being swept 4-5 levels in an instant at times.

I had some fun with it last night, waiting for small ranges to form, then bracketing them with orders and scalping out small breaks, just getting swept in with the volatility.

A lot of effort though and not a particularly effective way to trade, so tonight I will do the opposite, look for short term exhaustion in counter moves and try to jump on board.

Overall, I'm still waiting for the market to return to normal and to take some low risk opportunities looking to exploit the volatility.

No levels still - it's far too volatile to attempt to guess where the market may react.
Markets looked like they were slowing down on Wednesday but there's still a log of whipping around going on.

image of emini S&P futures trading chart 09 feb

Had dinner last night with Alex, the CEO of AXIA who mentioned they were loving these conditions - but then I guess they do love other things I stay away from like news events.

Anyway - still waiting for a return to normality before I start trading this. Glad that some are enjoying it!

Cheers

Pete

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

Market is calming down, obviously but it's still very thin.

Right now market depth is very thin:

image of S&P emini futures order flow 8th Feb 2018

Yesterday it did get up to 1-200 per level but was variable. So I'm keeping my eye on it today but still think it's too soon to trade the ES the way I do.

If the liquidity comes back, I'll look to take some momentum trades but if not, I'll wait it out. Crude has been ok in terms of liquidity, so might be a wiser play again today.

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image of S&P ES emini futures trading chart for 5th Feb with BIG drop

Big day yesterday, as we discussed on 29th Jan - the move up was exceptional. It's not a great shock that the reaction was exceptional.

Even in the bigger scheme of things - that was a big drop.

image of s&p emini futures trading chart

So the plan for the day is simple. There's not much benefit in having a grand plan. We've had ETFs wiped out, the media is having a field day (well, they need some excitement) - and we are still at very high levels.

We could as easily snap back up as go down another few hundred points. Obviously watch out for limit up/down.

No need for levels, no point guessing where any move will end. It's a market that needs to be played differently - wider stops, scaling in. If you play it at all. I'll watch but not in a hurry to engage.

Be careful.

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image of S&P emini futures trading chart

A nice push down on Friday we broke the 2810 level overnight, then pushed up towards it - couldn't get there and then sellers really piled in.

So as with any big day like that, it's really open - we could snap back up, push down some more or go sideways. For me, specific price levels aren't as important as just trying to keep on the right side and get on board any move as it may be a big one, whichever way it breaks.

mage of the daily volume profile of emini futures

No weekly profile today - it's a bit pointless after that run down on Friday.

Plan
- Morning trade on only if we don't go really volatile overnight
- Pretty much a wait & see day - jumping on any volatility that develops
- Eyes on 2810

Daily Numbers
Range - 275875 -> 2807.75 / 2831
Value - 2771.75 -> 2807.50
Globex - 2733 -> 2757
Settlement –2756.75
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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image of Sp emini futures daily trading chart

We held 2810 yesterday. As per yesterdays prep, I am looking for acceleration down if this breaks. Seems like yesterday confirmed people have their eye on it.

image of emini futures volume profile

The major distribution from this week grew, so I see that now as around 2816-2840. Expecting chop between those prices.

image of S&P futures volume profile

Yesterday we just rotated around the range, so no new information other than we like trading here at the moment.

Overall action yesterday was pretty bad. Market was whipping around, sweeping 4-5 prices at a time with correlation between Dow, Nasdaq & S&P broken down. It's a tough market to play.

Plan
- Look for an early trade off the open
- After that no trading between 16 & 40 (obviously with a little flexibility)
- Look to fade the range
- If we break 10 to the downside, watch for volume increases and join any push down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2809.50 -> 2878.50
Value - 2815 -> 2840

Daily Numbers
Range - 2809.50 / 2812.50 -> 2836.75
Value - 2816.50-> 2829
Globex - 2811.75 -> 2831
Settlement –2822.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810ample Description

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Emini S&P Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep & Trading Plans – January 2018

image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart 31 jan

We continued the small pullback yesterday. Volatility made it tough in the morning. 2 ways you can handle this in my opinion - wider stops or repeated attempts at joining momentum. The latter involves jumping on momentum but getting out if it ticks back - so using the momentum to get you an initial move you way but then bailing if you get no follow through.

I imagine it was a rough day for many and standing aside when it gets wild like that - sweeping 4-5 ticks at a time, is definitely a smart thing to do.

image of emini futures volume profile

Weekly profile wise - it's elongated, which generally speaking doesn't help us much.

image of volume profile chart S&P futures

Overnight, we've moved around yesterdays range, so nothing new. As we go into today, we are looking for signs of volatility again to set the tone. We could move up 30 points as easily as down 30 points.

Plan
- Careful with the early trade today
- looking out for a run on a break of yesterdays low
- other than that - playing it by ear, eyes on volatility and trying to jump on any sustained moves
- Hold onto your hat

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2818.50 -> 2873.25
Value - Too elongated - n/a

Daily Numbers
Range - 2818.50 -> 2839.50 / 285
Value - 2858 -> 2866.50
Globex - 2821.50 -> 2839.50
Settlement –2824.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of daily futures trading chart for S&p emini futures

Well - that looks almost like a pullback. Still - most of it is overnight trade, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Ideal scenario would be that we start marking out a range we can trade between. That hasn't happened yet.

The downside has good potential after this move up. Lots of new longs that might bail.

image of volume profile chart for S&P emini futures

We can see the low of last weeks big distribution has held - so eyes on that range today.

image of emini futures volume profile

A nice run down overnight, so on the lookout for volatility. Lots of daytradr levels around us, but it's a break of the overnight low I'd really like to see.

Trouble is - this has been a market that refuses to stay down - so of course looking for volatility in both directions. We could easily snap back and take back the losses.

Plan - no bias
- looking for trades off the regular levels
- will jump on volatility from anywhere really - but with a tight stop and ready to exit on any that lose momentum
- prize trade would be shorts coming in below the overnight low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2802 -> 2873.25
Value - 2832.75 -> 2851.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2851.50 -> 2871.25 / 2878.50
Value - 2858 -> 2866.50
Globex - 2831 -> 2858
Settlement –2853.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of S&P futures daily tradng chart 29 jan

It's worth zooming out to see a few years data. As you can see this move up is exceptional. Not saying you should fight it but it's worth having a few pennies aside for trading a correction - or just being aware of the possibility so you don't get stuck like a deer in headlights if it does start to correct.

image of s&P emini futures volume profile chart

Once again we see a large distribution below us that 'could' act as support but of late, we've not been pulling back to support, so it's somewhat moot!

image of emini futures volume profile

You can see the high of this range more clearly here - so around 2850-2855 is where we might expect to target if we fall back

Plan
- No bias - but obviously market likes going up
- looking for continuation moves if we break the overnight los as not much traded down to 50
- other than that - fresh air above, so looking at the daytradr levels but looking forward to just playing what unfolds at these new levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2802 -> 2873.25
Value - 2832.75 -> 2851.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2841 / 2846.50 -> 2873.25
Value - 2846.75 -> 2861.75
Globex - 2868.50 -> 2878.50
Settlement –2874.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25


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image of s&p futures trading chart 23 jan

Nice push up yesterday. So now we are looking at that sideways action from last week to hold on any retraces (not that we have retraces any more!)

image of s&p emini futures volume profile for 23 jan

The high of last weeks distribution is around 2808. That seems a long way down but not much has traded between here & there so if there is any selling pressure, it should not be a problem to go that low.

image of emini futures volume profile for 23 jan

A big move up yesterday and that has continued so far overnight. You can see to the left the 'base' we built. What is happening now is not normal, the market will revert to a range but there is no point fighting it or trying to predict when it will do so.

Plan
- Still no real bias - but obviously I'm not going to short any moves up.
- Day trader levels still working well - so looking for momentum away from any level to jump on board
- Fresh air above so no levels there, an eye on the downside - we could whip back and retrace yesterdays range similar to the big days last week
- Basically a reactive day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2812.75
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806

Daily Numbers
Range - 2802 / 2809.25 -> 2835.50
Value - 2817.50 -> 2828
Globex - 2834 -> 2840.50
Settlement –2835.25
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart

The markets still Trumping upwards. Volatile though, still waiting for it to settle into a range before we get any medium term predictability.

images of emini futures volueme profile

A big distribution last week but remember - we ran over it twice as if it wasn't there - so normally, I'd expect this to slow down any moves downside but now I'm not really sure. Answers on a postcard please.

image of S&P emini futures volue profile

The tail end of last week we ranged from 92-12. So that's what I have my eye on going in. We held Fridays VAL so far overnight, so watching the day trader levels too.

Plan
- No bias
- will look for an opening trade, after that playing it by ear, looking for reactions off the usual levels & any high volume areas that develop

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2812.75
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806

Daily Numbers
Range - 2791.75 / 2799.50 -> 2812.75
Value - 2802 -> 2808
Globex - 2802 -> 2810.50
Settlement –2811.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of s&p emini futures trading chart

An up and down week. Moving but no obvious direction.

image of emini futures volume profile

There is a bulge in the profile this week but as per yesterdays prep - we had 2 days where it ran right over that, so I am not taking any notice of it today.

imag eof s&p emini futures volume profile 19 jan

On a daily basis, we've been honoring levels, so moves away from levels have been doing well.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade off the open
- After that, looking for a move away from a level. Prior highs have been working well this week
- If we build a tight range, will look to trade extremes
- so very much a day to let it unfold and not expect too many clues from the history

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2809.50
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2793/75 -> 2807.75 /2808
Value - 2796. 75 -> 2803.25
Globex - 2792 -> 2801
Settlement –2796.25
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image f s&p futures daily trading chart

Well - a rebound yesterday - we saw early sellers but they couldn't get any traction and the overnight low held.

image emini futures volume profile 18 jan

40 point range so far, a large distribution in the middle but seeing as that didn't stop us yesterday or today, so I doubt it's relevant.



Overnight is honoring the new highs from yesterday. I see no bias here at all.

Plan
- No Bias but decent expectation of range
- Look for an early trade
- After that watch the "day trader" levels for a reaction
- Look for continuation plays - after a hold or break of a level.
Playing anywhere in the weeks range looks OK

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2809.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2807.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2779 / 2780.50 -> 2809.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2802
Globex - 2800.75 -> 2808
Settlement –2803.75
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image og S&P emini futures trading chart for 17th jan 2018

A bit of a wild day yesterday - we may new all time highs overnight & again in the day session but then dropped back through 2770.

image of emini futures volume profile 17th jan 2018

Not much on the weekly profile yet to get excited about - I would be wary above 2790 that we may range from there to about 96 where that bulge in the profile is.

image of s&p emini futures volue profile chart

Yesterday was a big day but in the grand scheme of things, the drop doesn't even count as a pullback. So be on the lookout for more downside, I think the market is ready for it. I'd look out at 60 below but if we get through that I'd be looking for 2700's. There really isn't much traded below us.

This doesn't mean it will go down - just that if we get some downside momentum, I think we can have a good run south.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- A close eye on yesterdays low because I think we have great potential downside if we can break it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2808.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2808.50
Globex - 2779 -> 2786.50
Settlement –2782.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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Not much action yesterday, so we are in the same place from an analysis perspective.



2760 below is the top of the lower distribution. There's not much trade between there and where we are now, so a slide down is theoretically easy until we build a base for a move up - like we did last week.



As we go into today, I'll be mostly watching this upper range and how we trade around it 2789.75 -> 2798.25. We didn't build volume at these new prices, so if we can break to the downside, we could see a nice run down.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- Other than that, it's pretty open - so it's mostly a wait & see day. I find it hard to be convinced about these high prices but I don't want to sell against momentum!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2788.75
Value - 2739.00 -> 2757.75

Daily Numbers
Holiday yesterday....
Globex - 2792 -> 2798.25
Settlement – Holiday yesterday
Today only - 2789.75 -> 2798.25
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart for 15 jan 2018

Up, up and awaaay. Fresh air up here, so not a lot to do other than look behind us for clues of what might happen if we do fall a bit.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile for 15 jan 2018

2760 below is the top of the lower distribution. There's not much trade between there and where we are now, so a slide down is theoretically easy until we build a base for a move up - like we did last week.

image of emini futures volume profile jan 2018

The right most session here is the overnight session. Go 2 sessions back and you see Thursday night/Friday morning. You can see Friday day time (US) was pretty flat. So most progression up is overnight. The day session traders seem to be accepting the moves though. Thursday was the same deal.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- Other than that, it's pretty open - so it's mostly a wait & see day. I find it hard to be convinced about these high prices but I don't want to sell against momentum!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2788.75
Value - 2739.00 -> 2757.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2752.75 -> 2766.75
Value - 2767.25 -> 2773.25
Globex - 2770 -> 2788.75
Settlement – 2792
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart for 12 jan 2018

A pop up yesterday, fresh air above and looking to see if we can fall back and find support, range or if the market will continue up. Volume continues to be weak on these moves up but as per yesterdays prep, we did build volume for 3 days which gives us a potential base.

image of emini futures volume profile chart for 12 jan 2018

3760 is the top of the old range, so that's an obvious line in the sand for any moves up - it would also be a sizeable pullback.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile 12 jan

image of emini futures volume profile chart for 12 jan 2018

So first looking at yesterdays high/value high which is also a few ticks below the overnight low. Looking for an initial move down off the open if we stay at these highs but that could just be a rebalance off the open, so not worth marrying any early shorts. Watching the usual day trader levels but other than that, it's all about where the volume comes in and what they decide to do. Overnight volume is much lower than the volume from 9:30 am EST onwards, so if those newer traders don't like these prices, they'll take us down.

Plan
- No bias
- Wait to see which way volume takes us OR if everyone stands back in 'wait & see' mode
- very wary of initial moves down
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2776.75
Value - 2739.75 -> 2754.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2747.75 / 2752.75 -> 2768.50
Value - 2757 -> 2766
Globex - 2766.75 -> 2776.75
Settlement – 2769.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart for 11 jan plan

As discussed - the more time we spend up here, the more chance we have of this being a base for the next move up. 37 seems to be holding well and we poked through it yesterday but couldn't gain any traction. So there's no sign of sellers taking advantage of the relative lack of trade from 2700-2737.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile

The profile is building into a very even distribution topping out around 74. Indicating a likelihood of more rangebound activity.

image of emini futures volume profile for 11 jan

A day trader type day yesterday - we held the previous days Val, the overnight high and the weeks low. So expecting rangebound behavior today and on the lookout for break.

Plan
- look to play 37-54 range. Expect moves above to be headfakes
- other than that look @ the day trader levels - yesterday/overnight range, weekly range, yesterdays Value. Impossible to know which will hold, so look for a reaction away from a level to jump on board
- No hurry to trade today as we do have fairly decent ranges, so will wait for a good spot

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2760
Value - 2641.75 -> 2752.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2736.50 -> 2752
Value - 2744.25 -> 2750.25
Globex - 2747.75 -> 2754.50
Settlement – 2750.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of S&P emini Futures Daily trading chart 10 jan

No sign of a let up in the moves up yesterday. So we are in fresh territory still, so nothing historically to play off on the dailies.

image of emini futures vlume profile 10 jan

I still see that we haven't traded much below, so we could easily fall back. As we trade more here, that can build a base for a move up. So we'll either range here for a move up or build a larger range after a move down. I don't think we'll just move up forever. So it's a matter of waiting to see where the range develops before we get any strong signals in my opinion.

image of emini s&p futures voume profile

We rejected new highs yesterday but volume overall is still low. I don't see that rejection as significant. What is more significant today hopefully is the fact we've pretty much had a hard ceiling at 2752 - yesterdays value low.

Plan
- Overall bias is up
- if 2752 holds off the open, then looking to join downside momentum
- there's no range evident so no "no-go" prices today, so if yesterdays VAL breaks - I'll be quite happy to play upside then look out for the VAH/High yesterday as targets
- Pretty much a wait & see day playing around yesterdays range. Fresh territory, not much to play off

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2760
Value - 2641.75 -> 2752.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2742.75 / 2748 -> 2760
Value - 2752 -> 2759.50
Globex - 2745 -> 2752
Settlement – 2752.25
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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image of S&P emini Futures daily Trading Chart for 9th January

Volume a little on the low side so this month. I would have expected an increase yesterday. You would expect most traders back off vacation this week and volume to recover. So we may be seeing lack of interest overall at these prices.

image of Emini Futures Volume profile chart

Looking to last week - we don't have a great deal of trade anywhere from here down to 2698 - so if we do breakdown, I think we could be below 2700 pretty quickly.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile for 9th January

So far overnight, yesterdays high has held. I'll be watching the regular day trader levels as we go into today.

Plan
- Short bias below yesterdays high
- caution short towards yesterdays low/value low (and might be a long opportunity)
- looking for 2700 as a target if we break the lows
- above yesterdays high, will take go with trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2647.50 -> 2743
Value - 2695.75 -> 2742.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2736.50 / 2737 -> 2748.50
Value - 2738 -> 2746.50
Globex - 2742.75 -> 2748.25
Settlement – 2746.75
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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Emini S&P Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep & Trading Plans – December 2017

image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart

We started to turn down yesterday, so today looking for follow through. We did have a nice break and people did jump on board as expected when we got the break. Saying that - volume on the day was average. For now though I will bias short.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile

The lower distribution tops out at 2662, so eyes on that today.

image of s&p emini futures vlume profile chart

We also had a late pullback last night to 2661.75, a tick below the level above, which has held overnight. So we go into today with a lot more clarity than yesterday.

Plan
- Short bias
- 62 a key level, above that I'm less inclined to short, so shorts below 62 and possibly longs above

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2651.75 -> 2675.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2654.75/ 2668 -> 2671.25 / 2673.50 Value - 2654.75 -> 2666.75 Globex - 2651.75 -> 2661
Settlement – 2653.25
Today only - 2662
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart for 14 dec

The high still not resolved, FOMC didn't shift the market much. Is this the end of volatility on the S&P 500 for the year?

image of s&p emini futures volume profile

We can see the upper distribution bottoms out around 2664 - so eyes on that.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

We've settled into a tight range - so watching the extremes - 2660-2675.50. Really not seeing much at all.

We need something to give the market a shake - perhaps the employment numbers....

Plan
- Very low expectation day
- watching for an opening trade - but overnight range is so small so far that might not be on either
- No trades between 60 & 75.50 - look for action close to these extremes
- Exception will be a reaction at 64

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2662.25 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2659.25 / 2666.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2670 -> 2674.50
Globex - 2668 -> 2672.50
Settlement – 2666.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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image of emini s&p futures daily trading chart

Still no resolution of the top - we have broken through the top and overnight we've pushed down. So today we see what the US traders thing of this push downside.

image of emini s&p futures volume profile

So far we can see the push down has been rejected.

s&p emini futures volume profile 13 dec 2017

The range was very low yesterday but volume was decent. So there's no lack of traders, just a lack of decisiveness.. I think all it'll take to make people decisive is a bit of a push down through the overnight low. Not sure if a push up through the highs will bring in volume but it's possible.

Plan
- low expectation day
- best chance of follow through is a break downside
- looking to trade the open aggresively as there might not be anything on later
- definitely a day where we have to wait & see after any initial push.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2673
Value - 2658.25 -> 2672.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2663.25 -> 2673
Value - 2668.25 -> 2672.75
Globex - 2659.25 -> 2669
Settlement – 2664.25
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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image of emini s&p futures daily trading chart

Market popped through the highs - so now looking for signs we'll roll over and revert to rangebound behavior for a while.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile 12 dec

Not much from the weekly profile, other than we haven't popped the top yet - so on the lookout for a headfake!

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart 12 dec 2017

A narrow day yesterday, we've stayed above the days range mostly. Watching the normal daily levels. Not really seeing an area where we'd see a lot of sellers, unless we can get below yesterdays range.

Plan - low expectation until this "top" has been resolved (new push up/headfake/roll over)
- Looking for moves down to yesterdays levels as potential areas where buyers may come in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652.25 / 2654.50 -> 2664
Value - 2657-> 2661.50
Globex - 2663.50 -> 2667.75
Settlement – 2651.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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image of emini s&p futures daily trading chart 11 dec

Onto the March contract. Eyes on Bitcoin today. The way the CBOE contract is moving, we could easily limit up/down on there and who knows what that will do to the markets overall? From the S&P perspective, we are in the middle of what's been a wild, choppy area. It'll be most predictable at the top - so eyes on 2668.

image of S&P emini futures volume profle 11 dec 2017

Last week was really one large distribution. Not much to be gained from analyzing that much...

image of S&P emini futures volue profile chart dec 2017

Market has marched up towards the highs - so path of least resistance is upside.

Plan
- No strong bias going into the day but preferring the upside
- Look for an opening trade as it is a little vague going in
- Looking for a reaction at 68
- Really a wait and see day, looking for clarity from intraday activity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2640.25 / 2646.50 -> 2665
Value - 2649 -> 2653.50
Globex - 2654 -> 2658.25
Settlement – 2653.50
Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 01 Dec 2017

More pushes up - real teflon market this. Perhaps like Bitcoin, it'll never move down again....

image of volume profile for S&P emini futures

No use in the weekly profile in these circumstances.

image of S&P emini Futures volume profile chart

Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on yesterday
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range
- mostly looking to jump on board again

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2609 -> 2657

Daily Numbers
Range - 2621.75 / 2634.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2641 -> 2654
Globex - 2637.25 -> 2645.75
Settlement – 2648
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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Emini S&P Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep & Trading Plans – October/November 2017

image of S&P Emini futures daily trading chart 30 Nov

We had a pause yesterday, so on the lookout today to see if we can react to the move up - either with more upside or a decent move down. Volume is certainly there, so a great chance of follow - through.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile Nov 2017

Eyes on the large distribution below from 2623-2626.50 - so eyes on both prices.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile Nov 2017

We've held yesterdays value area as far, so eyes on that.

Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on 29th
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2634.25
Value - 2602.50 -> 2633

Daily Numbers
Range - 2619.75 -> 2634.25
Value - 2621.75 -> 2627.75
Globex - 2621.75 -> 2628.50
Settlement – 2625
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of s&P emini futures daily trading chart for 28 nov

Moving up but it's hard work, slow choppy days - trying our patience. It's hard to see what's going to increase volatility as we head to the New Year.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile 28 nov 2017

The upper distribution from last week bottoms out around 94 - so eyes on that if we push down further, we might see some downside volatility if that breaks.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile

A lot of overlapping sessions here. Overnight we've held yesterdays low.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Looking for a trade off the open as it may chop later
- Watching the usual daily levels for a reaction
- Interested in a break of 94, will jump on any moves down through there as there's a decent chance volatility will increase

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2603
Value - 2582 -> 2602.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2596.50 / 2597.75 -> 2605.50
Value - 2599.75 -> 2603
Globex - 2597.50 -> 2603
Settlement – 2599.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of emini S&P futures daily trading chart 22 nov

A pop up through the highs was a nice surprise yesterday. Now looking for signs we'll roll over to the bottom of our range (wherever that is).

image of volume profile chart for s&p emini futures

Very little trade from here down to 2584 - so of we push down, we could be back at 84 very quickly.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

You can see the same thing here, big push up but and no real volume on the way up. It's now the day before Thanksgiving, so we might not see much of anything.

Plan
- Watch for a breakdown for a quick move back to 84 and potentially beyond
- To the upside, I think a scale in is appropriate as it's new ground
- Not much else here other than eye on volatility as it's holiday tomorrow

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2600.50
Value - N/A - too extended

Daily Numbers
Range - 2579.25/ 2589.25 -> 2600.50
Value - 2595.75 -> 2599.25
Globex - 2594.50 -> 2599.25
Settlement – 2596.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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2 days left till Thanksgiving, 3 days to Black Friday carnage!

image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart 21 nov

Volume low yesterday - around a million contracts. Crude was a much better trade.

image of emini s&p futures volume profile 21 nov

Price-wise, we stayed within last weeks range during the day session. We were on the lookout for 84.50 yesterday and the high was 84 but so late in the day as to most likely be well missed by most.

image of volume profile char for s&p emini futures

Overnight, we've traded around yesterdays value area. Still eyes on 84.50 above but also an eye on the regular daily levels. Yesterday the open trade setup was a bit fuzzy, no clear step in the profile from overnight as the top of the closest high volume area tapered off but my guesstimate was about 76.50 with it being the closest area above 5k contracts traded. We got down to 77 and I completely had my eye off the ball at that point. The open was so slow, I didn't think it's push down as far as it did as quick as it did. You snooze, you lose...

Plan
- Look our for the early/open trade
- eyes on 84.50 above (which basically means a headfake through yesterdays high at this point)
- eyes also on the regular levels
- hard to see where we'd have a spike in participation but down from a push up is best by the book
- definitely a day where we might not have much on the table

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2555.50 -> 2589.50
Value - 2569.75-> 2584.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2567.75 / 2577 -> 2584
Value - 2580.25 -> 2583.25
Globex - 2579.25 -> 2583.25
Settlement – 2582
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of emini S&P futures daily trading chart 20 nov

Still unclear and waiting for a decent range to form - but with an eye on both 2562 and 2539.25 as potential low points. Not trading those but watching for participation upside if one of those levels hold.

image of S&P emini futures vlume profile chart 20 nov

The volume profile tapers out below at 2562 and above at 2584.50. Not much else of interest on there for me.

image of S&P emini futures vlume profile trading chart 20 nov

Not much move on Friday. This weeks a holiday week - so watch out for general lack of participation. We know the tail end of the weak will be slow but it might be slow from the start.

Plan
- look for an open trade considering it could well be slow thereafter
- look for participation away from one of our regular levels (below) or the levels mentioned above.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2555.50 -> 2589.50
Value - 2569.75-> 2584.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2576.25 -> 2583.25 / 2586
Value - 2579 -> 2581.50
Globex - 2567.75 -> 2578.75
Settlement – 2569.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P emini futures daily chart for 15 nov 2017

Bit of a Connor McGreggor market "You'll do nuttink". Moved down yesterday but then straight back up and overnight down again. Eyes on 2593 as we've had 3 hits to that area and no push through yet. Not necessarily saying it's a definite long trade as much of an area of interest. We could see a nice run down if it does break.

image of S&P emini futuresvolume profile

Ugly - indicates range extension more than continued downside. Let's see..

image of emini futures volume profile

You can see how violent the push down was and the push back up - them market snoozed in the afternoon. So our premise of downside moves being of more interest to speculators are holding. Saying that, still hard to set a bias into today.

Plan
- No bias
- short below yesterdays range but caution at 2593 area.
- Other than that - play the usual levels and follow the volume as I'm not seeing much in terms of longer term levels or obvious profile levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2564.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2573-> 2583.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2564.25 -> 2578.25 / 2582.25
Value - 2572.25 -> 2577.75
Globex - 2565.50 -> 2578
Settlement – 2578
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart for 14 nov 2017

As per yesterdays prep - it's still unclear but at least now we have 2 days with a really tight range - we might not break that today but it is energy waiting to blow off when it does break. So 2070-2083 is the range.

image of emini s&p futures volume profile for 14 nov trading day

VP for this week starting to shape up a lot like last weeks - eyes on this for the time being.

image of emini futures for S&P500 volume profile

Pretty easy today - wait for an extreme and fade it as long as there's not a mass of momentum as we approach. When this 2 day range does break
- try to jump on as we'll likely have stops.

After a break - play it by ear....

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 70 and 83. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- Jump on a break if we see a lot of aggression as we might have a decent stop run

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2563.25 -> 2594.50
Value - 2578.25-> 2591

Daily Numbers
Range - 2570,25 / 2572 -> 2585.50
Value - 2579.50 -> 2584
Globex - 2577.25 -> 2582.25
Settlement – 2582
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart for 13 nov

Not a very clean move here. Plenty of room for lots of differences of opiinion. So looking for signs of clarity.

image of emini futures volume profile

Beautiful D shaped profile last week. Nice to look at, usually ugly to trade. Looking to take trades outside the bulk of tha - say 75-92.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart for 13 nov

Very small range on Friday which was a bank holiday. Really market was all over the place last week.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 75 and 92. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- Also - eyes on any breakdowns as downside is where all the momentum has been
- likely a wait & see day as it's quite unclear.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2563.25 -> 2594.50
Value - 2578.25-> 2591

Daily Numbers Range - 2571.50 / 2573 -> 2581.75 / 2585.75
Value - 2574.75 -> 2579.25
Globex - 2576.50 -> 2584.50
Settlement – 2578
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart as of 08 nov

Market still edging up - without much excitement. Downside moves still showing more exitement.

iage of s&p emini futures volume profile chart as of 08 nov

As per yesterday - a very "D" shaped profile - which indicated rangebound behavior. Yesterday we poked through the low of the major distribution (2580 as per yesterdays prep) and from there moved the top of it overnight - so all other things equal - looking to test 2580 area again before rolling back up.

image of emini s&p futures volume proflile  08 nov

Looking back at the past 3 sessions, it's going to be harder to engage between 80 and 90 as we've been over it so many times.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 80 and 90. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- No, really... nothing between 80 and 90 😉

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2575.50 -> 2594.50
Value - 2582 -> 2591

Daily Numbers
Range - 2579.75 / 2581.50 -> 2592.50
Value - 2582.50 -> 2590
Globex - 2584.50 -> 2594.50
Settlement – 2591
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P Emini futures daily trading chart 08 nov 2017

New all time high and then we dropped off again. Mixed signals with no clear direction. As per yesterday the downside seems to be a lot more interesting to traders - "downside runs still more likely to show excess than upside, so scale into any volume downside moves"

image of emini s&p futures vlume profile chart 08 nov

A very typical range indicating profile - be wary short below 2580 as there's a possible fade trade on there.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile 08 nov

Also an eye on 87.50 the late pullback. Note that yesterday we bounced at - overnight high vol area, overnight high, prior day VAH, prior day VAL. So market is definitely doing the dance....

Plan
- No real bias
- early trade on (may chop later)
- watch the usual levels for regular speculator behavior
- wary at 87.50 and 80.00 - no trades between 87.50 and 80.00
- downside runs still more likely to show excess than upside, so scale into any volume downside moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2575.50 -> 2593.50
Value - 2580.50 -> 2589.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2580.75 -> 2593.50
Value - 2582.50 -> 2588.75
Globex - 2579.85 -> 2587.50
Settlement – 2586.75
Today only - 2587.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of s&p emini futuress daily trading chart  07 nov

Market did move up on low volume. As expected yesterday, we didn't expect much excitement to the upside. If we do continue up though - we may have people feeling they are missing out - so watch for any upside volume today.

image of emini S&P futures volume profile chart 07 nov

Nothing of note on the weekly profiles at the moment.

image of S&P emini Futures vlume profile 07 nov

We've continued up a little overnight - but only about a 6 point range. Yesterdays value low we hit 3 times (2585.25) - so eyes on that today.

Plan
- early trade on (may chop later)
- watch the usual levels for regular speculator behavior
- expect chop to the upside until it 'clicks' that traders might be missing out - cautiously join when they do
- downside runs still more likely to show excess than upside, so scale into any volume downside moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2569.25 -> 2578.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2575.50 / 2582.25 -> 2590
Value - 2585.25 -> 2588.75
Globex - 2587.50 -> 2593.50
Settlement – 2590.75
Today only - 2595.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart

Watching to see if this is just range extension or the market wanting to move up. Can't tell either way, so no assumptions going into today.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart

Last weeks profile doesn't help that much - we do have one main distribution, so let's put the low of it 67.75 on the radar. We already ignored the high of it overnight.

image of emini S&P futures volume profile 06 nov

So far overnight we've managed to just retract Fridays day session. So watch the overnight/Friday extremes into today

Plan
- No bias going into today
- Eyes out for an open trade in case it slows down through indecision
- Looking to jump on any volume moves, especially downside as I think we'll have some good volume if a down move becomes apparent.
- Not that hopeful of many people joining a pop up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2569.25 -> 2578.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2573.50 -> 2585.50
Value - 2577 -> 2585.50
Globex - 2575.50 -> 2584.75
Settlement – 2582.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P emini futures daily time frame tradng chart

Well - we've had plenty of attempts to push down off the top of our presumed range. We had a good push down yesterday and great momentum but buyers quickly jumped in. So an open mind today

image of S&P emini future volume profile 03 nov

A very evenly distributed profile so far this week. We are now at the top of that around 78.50 - definitely bullish above that, expecting churn down to 66 if we can't break 78.50.

image of emini S&P futures volume profile

Great push down through the overnight low and then a spring back up. No movement overnight though.

Plan
- open minded
- longs above 78.50
- shorts below until we get to 66, then watching to see if the bottom of the profile holds
- follow the volatility basically - but open minded 'cause it has been fast-slow-fast-slow etc. of late

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2568.25 -> 2577.25
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2578.25
Value - 2569 -> 2575
Globex - 2576 -> 2579.25
Settlement – 25878.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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Happy FOMC day....

mage of emini S&P futures trading chart

Not much movement yesterday but then it is FOMC today. Not that any real changes are expected but I guess the market needs to rest ahead of it and then have it's little fling when the announcement comes...

mage of emini s&p futures volume profile 31 oct

Not much to see in the profile yet - expected when waiting for the FOMC

images of volume profile s&p emini futures

Plan
- Look for opening trade as it could be choppy after
- Low expectation day going into FOMC - volatility afterwards.
- will watch the first 30 mins - if no activity, no trading

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2565.50 -> 2578.25
Value - 2570.50 -> 2576.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2565.75 / 2569 -> 2575.50
Value - 2572.25 -> 2574.75
Globex - 2571 -> 2581.50
Settlement – 2583.50
Today only 2568, 2571
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of emini s&P futures daily trading chart 31 oct

Still around the top of the range - we were looking for a move down from the top yesterday & got that albeit a narrow move. Again as it's FOMC this week, it'll probably be slow till then.

mage of emini s&p futures volume profile 31 oct

Nothing really to report from this other than we dipped into last weeks major distribution and popped up.

image of emini S&P futures volume profile chart 31 oct

We held the low of the late range from yesterday. So an eye on 2571. Other than that, watch the usual levels

Plan
- Look for opening trade as it could be choppy after
- Downside bias overall
- Look for a trade off one of yesterdays levels or any reasonable backstop that forms intraday if market moves down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2580.75
Value - 2556.50 -> 2571.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2565.50 -> 2577.50 / 2578.25
Value - 2567.75 -> 2573.25
Globex - 2566.75-> 2570.25
Settlement – 2568.25
Today only 2568, 2571
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 30 oct 2017

FOMC this week - so a possible slow start.. overall we are at the top of our presumed range, so looking for an extension away and a retest or a move to the lows. The move to the lows being the more likely.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart 30 oct

The major distribution from last week tops out around 2568 - so caution as we approach that.

image of emini futures S&P500 volume profile

Also watching 2571 - Fridays value low.

Plan
- Opening trade on (as FOMC later might cause it to be slow)
- Looking for continuation downside to the bottom of our range (around 2540)
- Longs if we can move away from 75 with volume and return to test it

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2580.75
Value - 2556.50 -> 2571.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2557.50 / 2563.25 -> 2580.75
Value - 2571 -> 2580.50
Globex - 2572.25-> 2578.25
Settlement – 2578.50
Today only 2568, 2571
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart 27 oct

I'm still looking for a consolidation zone, I've market out a potential area which will need to be refined as we go. Nothing to do today about this - but let's watch it over the next few days.

image of s&p emini futures vlume profile chart

An elongated week with most trading between 57.25 & 68.75 - which pretty well marks out the overnight range so far. So I am watching for a decent push down if we break 52.75.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile27 oct

We are experiencing swings in volatility with yesterday being low volatility. If you look at the purple lines you can see we help the prior days high and value high. As we mentioned a few days ago the shallow days are choppy but seem to be reasonable to play given the observance of the usual levels.

I'm not sure if the overnight volatility - higher than yesterdays day session, points to a volatile day or not. So an eye on that.

Plan - Eyes on volatility after the open - then use that as a guide how to play it.
- Look for an early trade (in case it's low volatility)
- If low volatility - look for the market to observe the usual levels
- If high volatility - try to scale into a move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2577.25
Value - 2556.60 -?> 2569
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2556.25 / 2557.25 -> 2565
Value - 2559 -> 2562.50
Globex - 2557.50 -> 2569.25
Settlement – 2561.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 26 oct

2 Million contracts traded and a big range yesterday. We really seem to have decent volatility when we push down.

image of s&p emini futuress volume profile

An elongated week and as such - I tend to not pay too much attention to the weeks profile and certainly not the value area.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart

So far, we can see that we have held above the value area/late swing from yesterday. Into today, once again we are watching for volatility.
We are switching from high to low volatility from day to day, so each day the first thing we have to do is get a handle on how the volatility is playing out. For index futures we watch:

- How well the ES, NQ, YM are moving together (if not - low volatility)
- The amount of market depth on the ES (if mostly above 1000 a level - low volatility)
- switches as we get to extremes of volume/regular levels

Plan
- Open trade on
- No bias at all into today
- Wait & see day... Eyes on volatility and play accordingly - scaling in if it looks like a volatile move
- Eyes on the regular levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2573.25
Value - not worth following
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2565 / 2576
Value - 2546.75 -> 2557.25
Globex - 2556.75 -> 2560
Settlement – 2558.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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mage of emini S&P futures daily trading chart 24 oct

A volatile day yesterday and decent volume. So hopefully, we can see some more volatility today.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

We have stopped short of the main distribution from last week. So be on the lookout for any snaps back up today.

image of s&pemini futures volume profile chart

We basically opened at the overnight high and moved down for the whole day. Now - I'm not sure about you but I can't actually remember the last time we had a one way down day like this. So people will be bearing that in mind today and if we do push down again (eyes on Friday low of 2559.50), I think we'll see a lot of downside participation. For the short term anyway.

Overnight we have held yesterdays low so far, so a technical market at the moment and eyes will be on the usual levels.

Plan
- No bias at this point
- short bias below 59.50
- Just watching for volatility and moves at our regular levels, will jump on any volatility move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2573.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2561.75
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2562 -> 2576.75 / 2577.25
Value - 2567.50 -> 2575
Globex - 2561.50-> 2566.50
Settlement – 2563.50 Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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mage of S&P Emini Futures Trading chart for 23 oct

An interesting few days we had on Thursday on Friday. Interesting in that it was more volatile and that the big moves were made overnight with the day sessions just retracing those moves.

image of S&P Emini Futures volume profile 23 oct

Eyes on 2564 if we do move down. That's the upper distribution from last week. If we do move down through that and below 2560, I'll be looking for us to work to the lower part of the bigger distribution to 2552.

image of emini S&P futures volume profile chart

A move up overnight but the volatility from Thursday and Friday night sessions has gone for now. This is very much a wait & see day. We are at new highs - not much other than Fridays/overnights levels to play off. So we have to see how it plays out.

Plan
- Opening trade on today
- Watching Friday/Overnight levels but the history doesn't help much today
- So watching for ranges/volatility to guide us off the open

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2573.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2561.75
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2559.50 /2566 -> 2573.25
Value - 2566.50 -> 2571.50
Globex - 2572.50-> 2577.25
Settlement – 2574
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 20 oct

A lot of volume and volatility yesterday which has continued overnight. Interesting times.

image of S&P emini futures vlume profile chart 20 oct

A wide range for the week compared to what we've seen but most volume 2552.25 -> 2561.25

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

So we don't know what's happning - whether we are entering a new period of volatility, the market is marking out a new range that it'll settle into, if this is the last gasp before a reversal. Hopefully we are going to experience some volatility as it's been pretty useless since September.

Plan
- Opening trade on today
- After the opening trade, just follow momemtum, try to scale into trades
- We do have the potential to be opening a decent gap up - so be wary of
any initial moves down - like yesterdays opening move, it may be just rebalancing
- If momemtum/volatility dies after the open - look for a trade off the usual levels.
- Pay particular attention to 52.25 & 61.25 today

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2571.25
Value - 2552.25 -> 2561.25
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2542.50 / 2545.25 -> 2560.50/2560.75
Value - 2558.75 -> 2561.25
Globex - 2559.50-> 2571.75
Settlement – 2560.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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image of S&P Emini Futures daily trading chart 19 oct

A bit of a move down overnight - well into last weeks range, so an eye on that today.

image of S&P Emini Futures volume profile chart 19 oct

We didn't make it quite as low as the bottom of the major distribution from last week - but it does look pretty volatile still, so won't be surprised if we push down again.

image of Emini S&P futures volume profile

It's very volatile at the moment, so it's hard to comment on what to do off the open as I don't know where it'll be. After an extended push down we often have a 'rebalance' at the open. In this case we could expect an initial pop up off the open (if we open below 50... Best to let that play out or just play it long term.

After that it's looking for volatility and if we get it -riding with it. It could just be that this European move is just a flash in the pan and that the US session is dull again.

Plan
- Look for an early trade but be aware it could just be rebalancing
- Go with any move if it's volatile.
- If not - revert back to fading extremes/yesterdays levels
- Be flexible - hard to predict what the US session will bring after this overnight move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2562.25
Value - 2552.50 -> 2558.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2556.25 / 2557.25 -> 2562/2562.25
Value - 2558.75 -> 2561.25
Globex - 2542.50 -> 2560.75
Settlement – 2560.00
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

738k traded yesterday - complete lack of interest. Patience is needed while we are in this range.

image of S&P Emini futures volume profile

We are still showing a very regular, D-shaped profile for the week, so trades in the middle are off the table for me, unless directly off the open.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart 18 oct

Yesterday we moved down to overnight low, then up and down again to prior days VAL, so the 'regular' daily levels are being observed, even though it's slow. So keep an eye on them.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Look for fades at the extremes of the weeks range + the levels below
- Low expectation day overall, until we can break the range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2555.50
Value - 2545 -> 2551
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558
Daily Numbers
Range - 2552.25 -> 2557.75
Value - 2553.50 -> 2557.75
Globex - 2556.25 -> 2558.50
Settlement – 2557
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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image of S&P emini Futures daily trading chart 17 October 2017

We popped the top of our range but no follow through as yet. In fact, it's pretty lackluster.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart 17 Oct

Last weeks profile was very evenly distributed and yesterdays profile was the same, so probability of rangebound behavior is quite high. It's not clear yet whether last weeks range will impact this weeks action.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

A pretty slow market yesterday with us once again seeing a decent trade off the open and then us testing the overnight high both sides - with a 5 tick push through the range either side.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Look for trades outside of the yesterdays range
- Low expectation day overall

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2555.50
Value - 2545 -> 2551
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2550.75 -> 2557.75
Value - 2552.25 -> 2554.75
Globex - 2554.25 -> 2557
Settlement – 2556.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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Friday the 13th. Superstitious people should just switch off the PC... for those of use willing to risk a flash crash....

image of S&P Emini Futures daily trading chart

Still at the top. We have built some positions here, hopefully enough to give us a nice pop when it breaks. Fridays tend to stay within range more often than breaking it though.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

Not much needs to be said - been in a range, profile looks like a range...

image of S&P emini futures volume profile 13 oct

Still observing the usual levels. Yesterday we went to overnight low, reversed up to prior days high and back down. A day driven by short term speculation where we ended close to where we started. Lovely.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Wanting to see a rollover from here to confirm the range
- No trade between 44 & 50 after the early trade
- looking for action at the usual day trader levels but with no real directional bias

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2553.25
Value - 2545 -> 2550.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2546.25 -> 2553.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2552.75
Globex - 2547 -> 2555.50
Settlement – 2549.50
Today only - 2534.25, 2543, 2553.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

Volume dropped off yesterday, a narrow day at the highs, not much interest at all. We did grind up - but just within the range. Now we are at the top of the range, we are looking to roll over.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

As per yesterday, this is a very evenly distributed profile, so we expect to trade around it.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

A grind up but within a tight range, so really a directionless day. Early trade was on yesterday but I got shaked out of it (publicly, which is always nice). Will look for it today again.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Wanting to see a rollover from here to confirm the range
- No trade between 44 & 50 after the early trade
- looking for action at the usual day trader levels but with no real directional bias until we get to 3425 or 53.50,

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2553.25
Value - 2544.50 -> 2549.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2544.25 / 2546 -> 2553.25
Value - 2548 -> 2551
Globex - 2548.50 -> 2553
Settlement – 2553
Today only - 2534.25, 2543, 2553.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 11 oct

I'm marking out a potential range here, not because I have a crystal ball but because that's what we've been doing of late and we have just had one of the most substantial pops for a while. So it's better to be on the lookout for a range. If it doesn't hold, no problem - but let's keep in that frame of mind. I have my eye on 34.25->53.50 as potential range.

image of S&P500 emni futures volume profile 11 oct

Weekly profile so far shows a concentration of trade between 43 and 50. I am not going to get involved in the middle of that unless it's a trade off the open.

image of S&P emini volume profile chart

Yesterday we ended up where we opened but it was more of a normal speculator driven day. We tagged overnight high vol area, then moved up. That moved failed, we went to overnight low and bounced up, that failed and we headfaked (or bottomfaked) through the day low and went up from there.

The key here is that the ES is playing it's normal dance and not doing what it did in October which was that very slow churn with low volatility and low expectation. This is a good thing, hopefully it'll continue to do this, so eyes on the volatility.We closed 3 ticks above the prior closed - but moved around a lot in the process - happy days.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- No trade between 44 & 50 after the early trade
- looking for action at the usual day trader levels but with no real directional bias until we get to 3425 or 53.50,

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2553.50
Value - 2545 -> 2549
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2542.75 -> 2553.25
Value - 2544.75 -> 2548.75
Globex - 2545 -> 2549.75
Settlement – 2548.50
Today only - 2534.25, 2543, 2553.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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image of S&P Emini Futures Daily Trading Chart 10 Oct

Holiday yesterday but still not a bad day. Over 700k traded. So we'll treat it like a regular day.

Overall we've had a move up and I wouldn't be surprised to see us settle into a range here now.

image S&P emini futures vlume profile 10 oct

Looking below, 2536.75 is worth keeping an eye on from last week as there's a big step there.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

Overnight we've held yesterdays value range, so no new information. we look set to open in yesterdays range, so the first order of the day is to watch how we react to the value/price extremes.

Plan
- Overall long bias
- Expecting to settle into a range at some point - so watching for where that might be happening
- will look for an early trade, then at the day extremes
- a wait & see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2517 -> 2550.25
Value - 2527.50 -> 2550
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2550
Value - 2542.50-> 2547
Globex - 2543 -> 2547.25
Settlement – 2543.75
Today only - 2536.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 05 oct 2017

Another low volatility day yesterday. 9 point range, just under 1M traded and a little headway to the upside.

image of s&p emini futures volue profile chart 07 oct

This looks like a typical trend profile - consolidate, move, consolidate, move. So to keep moving up, we don't want to break the consolidation zone below us. It's not far away which makes it a bit suspect but eyes on 2530 anyway.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

Same deal yesterday - down to test a common reference point (overnight low) and then a move up. Not an easy trade to keep hold of though.

Plan
- Overall long bias
- lack of volatility is getting in the way, so early trades, patience or even dropping to a more volatile index (Nasdaq/Dow) might be in order
- The regular day trader levels have been ok the past few days, so an eye on the as fade levels if volatility is low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2517 -> 2538
Value - 2535.50 -> 2537
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2529 -> 2538
Value - 2532.75 -> 2537.25
Globex - 2534.50 -> 2537
Settlement – 2536.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P Emini Futures daily candlestick chart 04 oct 2017

Still creeping up. Still no reason to sell.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile 04 oct

As per the previous day, we spend most of the day retracing the overnight action. A choppy day session. Volume was below 900k.

image of S&P emini futures volue profile chart

Overnight is very narrow.

So same deal again today

Plan
- Overall long bias
- lack of volatility is getting in the way, so early trades, patience or even dropping to a more volatile index (Nasdaq/Dow) might be in order
- The regular day trader levels have been ok the past few days, so an eye on the as fade levels if volatility is low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2417 -> 2533.50
Value - 2518.75 -> 2529.75
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2525.50/ 2525.75 -> 2532.50
Value - 2526 -> 2529.50
Globex - 2530.75 -> 2533.50
Settlement – 2532.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futres candlestck chart daily timeframe

We did move up as expected yesterday but it was still a very thick market and it was pretty sluggish.

image of S&P Emini futures volume profile chart 03 oct

We still held the week high yesterday, no real help the weekly profiles 'cause we are nowhere near last weeks range at the moment!

image of S&P emini futures volue profile 03 oct

Yesterday we opened close to the overnight low and it was rejected, which is always nice. Overnight we have moved up again. Maybe we'll see the day retracing the overnight action again. No reason to be bearish....

Yesterday we had this:

Quoting
- Long bias
- As usual - look to see if the
- Ideally would like to see a move down fail around 07.50-09.25 and buyers to come in
- Overall more focused on volatility coming in than direction. If it is slow like many days last week or if we get some more swingy action.

And I feel the same again today... it's nice to have a bias but it's the volatility that's key at the moment - or lack of it...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2517
Value - 2494 -> 2506
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2517 / 2517.50 -> 2526.75
Value - 2521 -> 2525
Globex - 2525.50 -> 2529.50
Settlement – 2526.25
Today only - 2507.50, 2509.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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Santa rally imminent?

image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

We are moving up again. Watching the old range high at 07.50 on any pullback. Not huge volume on the moves up though.

image of S&P emini S&P futures volue profile

So far overnight, we have held last weeks high. That is going to be a reference point for us but I'm looking for more below as it looks like it's about to break.

image of S&P emini futures volue profile chart

If we do push down. we should also look at 09.25 on any moves back.

Plan
- Long bias
- As usual - look to see if the
- Ideally would like to see a move down fail around 07.50-09.25 and buyers to come in
- Overall more focused on volatility coming in than direction. If it is slow like many days last week or if we get some more swingy action.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2517
Value - 2494 -> 2506
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2504.75-> 2517
Value - 2510.25 -> 2516.25
Globex - 2517 -> 2523.50
Settlement – 2516
Today only - 2507.50, 2509.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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Emini S&P Futures Daily Pre-Market Prep & Trading Plans – September 2017

image emini s&P futures daily candlestick chart

No move yesterday. We stayed within Wednesdays range so we start today where we started yesterday - at the top of a range, waiting to see if we can break or not.

Oh yeah - and it's Friday.... not typically the most volatile day.

image of S&P Emini Futurs Volume profile chart 29 sept

The profile is quite even through the week. We do have a case for longs below 94 but no firm convictions.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

Yesterday was a typical day trader day - a push down to the overnight low, failure and push up - but low volume and a small range.

As with yesterday, I don't see much to get excited about here. A hold or pop close to the top would be ok for continuation down but the best trade would be moving through the top and headfake/continuation.

Plan
- No bias
- look for an early trade as a good chance of chop later.
- Would like to see a break of yesterdays range or failed attempt at it.
- Will be happy to not trade...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2509
Value - 2594 -> 2504
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2499 / 2500 -> 2508.25
Value - 2503.50 -> 2507.50
Globex - 2505.50 -> 2508.25
Settlement – 2507.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily candlestick chart as of 28 sept

We managed a nice move up yesterday and managed to pop through the top of the range. So we ended up with 2 oppo

1 - the fade fade outside yesterdays range
2 - the fade of the overall range we've been in the past few 10 days or so

Where we are now, we'd normally expect continuation down to the bottom of the range. Back down to 2486. Volume was pretty high on the move up yesterday though so we may be able to escape the range - so that's our job today - figure out which.

image of S&P emini futures volue profile chart 27 sept

Still not much from the weekly profile...

image of S&P Emini Futures volume profile

We don't want to push down too much today , there's no obvious place to look for a hold on the downside other than the overnight low we are marking out.

Plan
- No bias - but presume downside continuation if we break the overnight low
- Take continuations through the top if we see good volume pace through the overnight high
- Beware headfakes above 2510

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2509
Value - 2594.25 -> 2502
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2493 -> 2509.25
Value - 2495 -> 2505.50
Globex - 2501.50 -> 2505.50
Settlement – 2504.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures candlestick daily chart 27 sept

Still sideways.

image of S&P emini volue profile chart 27 sept

A big distribution from 94-98.25

image of S&P emini volume profile chart

Once again - not much to see here either. Early trade was good yesterday - we tagged settlement and then moved up. A long by 98 was fairly easy - just not that much follow through and lucky if you got filled at 01. Looking for the same off todays open hopefully in a better location to get follow through.

Plan
- No bias
- look to capitalize on the early swings
- look for fades outside of yesterdays range - but with caution as that's still in the middle of nowhere from a big picture perspective
- pat self on the back for being patient....

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2504.50
Value - 2594.25 -> 2599.75
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2492.25 -> 2501.25
Value - 2495.25 -> 2499.25
Globex - 2494.25 -> 2501.25
Settlement – 2495.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily candlestick chart 26 sept

Deja Vu time - still trading the same area. Even Kim & Don can't shake us out.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart26 sept

There's no real cluster yet from this weeks trading to guide us yet, so weekly profile isn't helping much.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile 26 sept

We broke the 94 level we were watching yesterday and it was a gave us some downside opportunity and we are now back in the range, so the 94 is off the table today.

Plan
- No bias
- looking for an early trade again - first swing or 2
- Then there's really not much on, so unless something eventful happens between now & the open, I'm struggling to see any decent trade in this area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2492 -> 2507.25
Value - 2599.75 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2500 / 2504.50
Value - 2487.25 -> 2494.25
Globex - 2492.75 -> 2498.25
Settlement – 2497
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily candlestick chart 25 sept

Still in the same range. Low volume. Not much to give us a bias either way...

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart 25 sept

We are below last weeks value low. The major distribution above bottoms out around 2502. Eyes on that.

image of volume profile for S&P emini futures

Overnight we had a spike up and moved back down. Overall though - still in the range. So we need to see something break.

Plan
- Look for an early trade - as we may chop afterwards
- Shorts if we can break below 94 with volume. Longs if it holds or we move up
- Caution at 2502
- Nothing else on. Will see what develops intraday but not interested between 94-02

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2492 -> 2507.25
Value - 2599.75 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2492 / 2494.75 -> 2501
Value - 2495.50 -> 2498
Globex - 2495 -> 2504.50
Settlement – 2499.50
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily candlestick chart for 22 sept

We had a breakdown yesterday. Eyes on 2486.25 and 2479.50.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart for 22 sept 2017

This is just for completeness. I guess we could see 2501 as a relevant level but the whole week.

image of emini s&p futures vlume profile chart

Yesterday the opportunity, once again - was at the open. Then a narrow range. The breakdown has been mostly overnight. So first order of the day - see of we can maintain these lows or we snap back up.

Plan
- No bias
- look for an open trade
- expect good participation on any move up from 86.25 or 79.50
- otherwise, a wait & see day. I don't think we can consider the weeks
range broken unless we get good volume away from it after 9:30am ESt

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2491.75 -> 2507.25
Value - 2501.25 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2496.50 -> 2504.50 / 2506.25
Value - 2499.25 -> 2502.75
Globex - 2492 -> 2501.25
Settlement – 2501
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P Emini Futures daily trading chart 21 sept

Well - we had a decent spike down off the FOMC but back into the tight range.

image of emini futures volume profile chart 21 sept

Still most trading between 02 and 05....

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

Really a lifeless market! We have unemployment numbers this AM, so we can hope that shakes us out a bit. My opinion is that the range is a bit too narrow to trade.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- Then look for a spike below 02 or above 05 - if it doesn't move out of that range - no trading
- Other than that - waiting for a break up or down to trade momentum
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2494 -> 2507.25
Value - 2502.25 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2494 -> 2507.25
Value - 2500 -> 2506.50
Globex - 2501.50-> 2506
Settlement – 2505.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of emini futures S&P500 daily trading chart 20 sept

Still sideways and volume really dropping off.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

Volume profile is suitably ugly and showing range bound behavior.

image of emini futures volume profile chart

We all know how weeks like this 'tend' to play out. That's a tendency, not an absolute, so expectation is we stay in the range but always with an eye on the break. Saying that - if we look at the weekly profile - the range is so small - really 2501-2505.

Plan
- No bias going into today
- looking for a trade off the open
- after that, unsure - in theory it's longs below 01 and shorts above 05 - but that is too narrow. So will wait to see how the range expands.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2497.75 -> 2506
Value - 2502.25 -> 2505.25
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2501 / 2501.25 -> 2506
Value - 2503.50 -> 2505.25
Globex - 2502.25 -> 2505.25
Settlement – 2504.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

not a lot of headway since yesterday - we moves up a little from the overnight highs but not much more.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart

We moved down to tag last wees high, still shy of value. Nothing much to gather from this.

image of emini futres vome profile

yesterday we had a decent move up off the open but it soon died out and we moved sideways. It's the typical range week setup again, so I'm not in a hurry to take any continuations.

Plan
- No bias going into today
- if we open in the middle of yesterdays range, will take longs above the range (beware of headfakes) or in the 2496-2498 range
- Not interested in trading between 2498 & 2506
- Will take shorts if any pushed up fail
- it's really a wait & see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2498
Value - 2487.50 -> 2495.50
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2497.75 -> 2506
Value - 2500.75 - 2505.25
Globex - 2501 -> 2504
Settlement – 2502.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P Emini Futures daily trading chart 18 sept 2017

We were waiting for a pullback but in the end we got 3 range days and the low of that range was enough of a base for us to move up through. For me, still long biased, trading both ways but preferring the long side.

image of S&P Emini Futures volume profile chart 18 sept 2017

Last weeks value high is around 95.50 - so look out there if we do make a move down. If we do trade below it, there's a good chance we'll churn down to 88.

image of S&P Emini Futures volume profile chart

Not much to see here other than a rather tired break upside on Friday with this move up through 2500 overnight. Any time we put in a significant move up overnight, we have to look out for an adjustment as we head into the day session. The stocks and futures need to line back up. So a move down off the open wouldn't mean too much.

Saying that - this is an all time high made mostly in the Asian session. So we do need to see whether the US traders accept this move. Should be interesting.

Plan
- Look for an early trade - but be aware the market might be a bit whippy off the open
- After the first few mins, leave the market to show it's hand
-see how the US traders like these prices
- a pullback to Fridays high/value high and a lift from there would be good as would any break from the overnight range.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2498
Value - 2487.50 -> 2495.50
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2487 /2490.50 -> 2498
Value - 2493.75 - 2497.25
Globex - 2498.50 -> 2504.50
Settlement – 2497.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P Emini Futures Candle stock daily chart

Still in the same place. As we've been in that place for 3 days, we now have the 'coiled spring' effect to consider. It may be we no longer need a pullback. We just need one side to stop out. I favor the upside. Trouble is - is it really likely to do this on a Friday?

image of S&P emini futures volue profile chart 15 sept

We can see an upper distribution - but obviously that's not really additional information.

image of S&P eini futures volume profile chart

So today looking to the range high & low to give us clues. Same deal as yesterday (which worked out

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open, low expectations after that
- Look to fade above 96 and below 88. Headfakes etc
- no trades between 88 ad 96
- go with any breakdown with high vol but note that 80, the old range high would be the target
- expect upside breaks to be slow without a downside test first.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2496.25
Value - 2486.50 -> 2495
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2487.50 /2489 -> 2496.25
Value - 2492.50 - 2495
Globex - 2487 -> 2494.75
Settlement – 2494.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 14 sept

Market not sure what to do at this top. It is trading plenty of volume up here which is good for continuation. I'd still like to see a downside test to get everyone to have more confidence in the upside and pile in. Still waiting

image of s&p emini futures volume profile with highlighted trading levels

We have a few areas worth watching below. Not overly significant but would expect to see better upside participation if any of them hold.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile 14 sept

Very narrow - we could stick in this range all week. Yesterday we had a test of ONL and prior VAL - so a technical day trader day. What we expected. Looking for more of the same today but obviously the longer we stay in this narrow range, the choppier it'll get so no trading in the middle of the past 2 days range.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open, low expectations after that
- Look to fade above 96 and below 88. Headfakes etc
- no trades between 88 ad 96
- go with any breakdown with high vol but note that 80, the old range high would be the target
- expect upside breaks to be slow without a downside test first.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2495.50
Value - 2485 -> 2495
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2489 /2489.25 -> 2495.50
Value - 2492 - 2494
Globex - 2491.50 -> 2495.50
Settlement – 2493.25
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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copy of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

A small move up yesterday, now we sit just below 2500. Other than that - in the same place as we were this time yesterday.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile 13 sept

This doesn't add much - including for completeness.

image of emni S&P Futures vlume profile chart

Yesterday we had a morning trade setup but I didn't get a fill. We then tested the lows and had a move up. Both fit our 'look for a test' plan but neither gave us a pop/decent follow up. So we have yet to see a decent pop off a test. Saying that, volume is decent - almost 2M, so the market likes trading up here.

I'd still like to see a pullback to 2480

Plan
- low expectation day... go on - surprise me
- no strong intraday bias for the opening hours
- look for an early trade
- look for a test of YH/YL/VAL/VAH or overnight H/L
- be ready for any pop that occurs above 2500
- look to fade any range that forms

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2443.75 -> 2469.50
Value - 2457.75 -> 2465.75
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2485 /2487.75 -> 2494.50
Value - 2489.75 -> 2492.50
Globex - 2489 -> 2495.50
Settlement – 2485.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of s&p emini futures daily trading chart 12 sept

Yesterday we had
"Rolling into December. Our 2 ranges are really merging into 1 range and we are at the top of it. As we are now past the holidays, first thing to look out for is whether we can escape this range, possibly with a move up to the end of the year."

Market didn't disappoint - it could be a headfake. Ideally I'd like to see a downside test to see if we can reject the old range. That I think, would bring in a lot of speculative buyers. We did see a lot of volume yesterday.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart 12 sept

Not much use for the weekly profiles yet - we are above most of the trading from last week and just 1 day in this weeks profile.

image of emini future volume profile

Today looking for a technical day - so pullbacks to yesterdays range/value area or overnight high low.

Plan
- Early trade should be OK today
- Long bias - looking for a pullback to a common level for a high confidence long
- Expecting swings up and down but hoping for an early test and swing up to see the most speculators pile in
- Wary of any heavy absorption on the offer side, which would indicate that this move up is fake, it is just a little higher that the old high at 87 so far
- eye on volume too - a repeat of yesterdays high volume would be ideal

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2443.75 -> 2469.50
Value - 2457.75 -> 2465.75
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.75 /2474 -> 2487
Value - 2480 -> 2486.50
Globex - 2485 -> 2489.75
Settlement – 2488.75
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

Rolling into December. Our 2 ranges are really merging into 1 range and we are at the top of it. As we are now past the holidays, first thing to look out for is whether we can escape this range, possibly with a move up to the end of the year.

All eyes on 2480, to see if we can pop the highs.

image of S&P emini future volume profile 11 sept

We are above last weeks high volume area, which is good for continuation upwards.

image of S&P Emini Futres volume profile chart 11 sept

This just shows us the same thing. We've escaped last weeks range. We don't want to fall back into it but even if we do, we have a good chance of a decent down day.

Plan ===
- No bias
- longs above 2480, if we get a pop
- shorts as soon as this move up appears to have failed and we see some downside volume come in,
- very wary of headfakes above 2480 (last pop up was to 2486.75)
other than that - it's wait & see if we get good participation and a bit of volatility
New levels this week - just the local ones but really we have almost 100 point range with not that much to play off in the middle.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2443.75 -> 2469.50
Value - 2457.75 -> 2465.75
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2455.25 / 2456.50 -> 2465 / 2465.75
Value - 2459.75 -> 2462.75
Globex - 2466.75 -> 2474
Settlement – 2461
Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 07 sept 2017

For todays prep - see yesterdays prep! Basically sitting in the same range and expecting the same thing.

image of S&P emini Futures TPO and volume profile 08 Sept

We built out the weeks range - so still watching 58.25 ->70.

image of s&p emini futures volume profile chart

Market is still rolling to December, we are still in the range - so plan today is same as yesterday.

Plan
- Expect a slow day
- Look for a trade off the open,
- After the open look for longs around 58.25 and shorts around 70.00
- no trades within 58.25-70
- beware of headfakes and take continuations outside the range only after a test (or iceberg to lean on)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - 2458.35 -> 2466.75
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2455.75 / 2457.75 -> 2467
Value - 2459.75 -> 2463.25
Globex - 2456-> 2465.75
Settlement – 2466.50
Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart 07 sept 2017

A flat day yesterday, so still no real bias from the longer term charts.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

We can see a big distribution from 2458.25 -> 2470. Typical of a range week. So we are on the lookout for that.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart 07 sept

We can see the narrow range. As we know, range weeks start out this way, we do still have news events to consider and it's also the rollover to the December contract today. This typically takes a couple of days - but an eye on December volume and move to there when volume is greater.

Plan
- Expect a slow day
- Look for a trade off the open,
- After the open look for longs around 58.25 and shorts around 70.00
- no trades within 58.25-70
- beware of headfakes and take continuations outside the range only after a test (or iceberg to lean on)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - 2458.75 -> 2468.25
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2456.50 / 2458.25 -> 2467.25
Value - 2461.50 -> 2466
Globex - 2455.75-> 2464.25
Settlement – 2465.50
Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

A pretty wild day yesterday, we fell 7 ticks short of filling the gap and then sellers piled in before making a recovery. We did go into yesterday with a long bias but cautious at the gap close and an understanding that news could throw the market into a spin.

The market is definitely looking nervous and so caution is key over the next few days at least....

image of S&P emini futures volume profile

I'm just putting this here for completeness, I don't think it helps us much today.

image of S&P emini futures volume profile chart

We were looking for shorts below 60 yesterday and the market did stall at 60.75, before the big breakdown. Saying that, I can't justify setting any levels today. I have no bias. The market is all over the place. It should be interesting with the roll starting tomorrow...

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open IF the open is fairly orderly - not too fast, not too much volume
- Watch out for volatility, if it appears to be high, then try to scale into a position in either direction. Be ready to bail
- Other than that - if it opens more orderly, watch for a developing level to play off

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - No use this week
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2445.50-> 2471.25
Value - 2447.75 -> 2463.25
Globex - 2565.50 -> 2463.25
Settlement – 2459.75
Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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image of S&P emini futures daily trading chart

Labor day yesterday, so volume should now recover and we should be back to regular "post holiday" volume by Monday.

Saying that, with Kim letting of nukes, we are now back to high-risk from an unplanned news event. If it weren't for that I'd be looking for longs going into today as we've hit the top of the upper range and are now at the bottom of it.

My 2 'non-news' scenarios are above.

image of S&P emini futures volue profile 05 Sept

A pretty elongated week last week, so no use of the weekly value area. In fact, I don't see much value in last weeks profile this week.

image of s&p emini futures volue profile sept

This is more interesting. We see a gap down again, most likely because of the NK nuke test. I'd normally use Fri-Mon as the numbers for "yesterday" when we get back from a bank holiday but today I think the key numbers will be...

Friday day session low (gap close) - 2473 and the low we made off the news drop 2460.25.

Plan
- Play technical but with an ear to the news
- Look for continuation up off the market shrugging off the news drop, caution at 2473 when the gap closes
- Look for a headfake/weakness around 2480 (top of range)
- Shorts below 2460
- Very cautious today because of the news potential

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2479.75
Value - No use this week
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2460.25 /2464.50-> 2469
Value - Not today - holiday yesterday
Globex - 2565.25 -> 2470.75
Settlement – Not today - holiday yesterday
Today only - 2473, 2480
Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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After suffering a 30% drawdown at the hands of “independent financial advisors”, Peter started trading in the early 2000’s, figuring there was no point in paying people to lose money for him. By 2005, Peter was day trading NASDAQ stocks and later discovered the value order flow. He struggled with the way order flow data was presented so designed tools that organized Order Flow information more rationally and Trading was born. Those tools are now the #1 ranked software on Investimonials.com.
Today Peter spends his time trading and helping other traders through the Jigsaw community, articles and free one on one sessions.

Jigsaw Trading

After suffering a 30% drawdown at the hands of “independent financial advisors”, Peter started trading in the early 2000’s, figuring there was no point in paying people to lose money for him. By 2005, Peter was day trading NASDAQ stocks and later discovered the value order flow. He struggled with the way order flow data was presented so designed tools that organized Order Flow information more rationally and Trading was born. Those tools are now the #1 ranked software on Investimonials.com. Today Peter spends his time trading and helping other traders through the Jigsaw community, articles and free one on one sessions.

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